Abstract
This article presents the development of an integrated assessment of the Arctic marine environment state under intensifying shipping activities. Using the PROMETHEE II multi-criteria analysis methodology, a formula was derived for assessment that enables comprehensive ranking of environmental states based on multiple criteria. Three time periods were considered as alternatives: baseline (2012-2017), transitional (2018-2023), and forecast (2030). Seven key assessment criteria were identified: atmospheric emissions of nitrogen oxides and black carbon, near-surface ozone concentration, degree of ocean acidification, intensity of biological invasions, loss of key habitats, and rate of Arctic warming. The results showed that the baseline period has the maximum net outranking flow (0.9892), the transitional period represents a threshold state (0.0108), and the forecast period demonstrates critical deterioration (-1.0000). The derived formula enables quantitative assessment of the degree of Arctic marine environment degradation and can be used for monitoring ecosystem changes, planning conservation measures, and developing sustainable Arctic shipping strategies.
Keywords: Arctic, PROMETHEE II, climate change, black carbon, ocean acidification, biological invasions, multi-criteria analysis, shipping