Abstract
Long-term changes of the surface air temperature (SAT) in the Eastern Russian Arctic (65 – 85° N, 70° E – 170° W) are examined, using ensemble-averaged results from 33 CMIP6 models for 1940 – 2099, in frames of the scenarios with the weak, moderate, or strong radiative forcing. The analysis is based on the annual mean SAT averaged over 30-year periods of 1940 – 1969, 1994 – 2023, 2024 – 2053 and 2070 – 2099. It is shown that the CMIP6 models ensemble adequately reproduce SAT changes, including spatial patterns, thus justifying future projections. For this purpose, the CMIP6 results are compared with those derived from the ERA5 Reanalysis and observations at six characteristic weather stations in the Eastern Russian Arctic. In particular, it is shown that from 1940 – 1969 to 1994 – 2023 SAT had increased by 1 – 2 °С and 2 – 4 °С over the land and ocean, respectively. The strongest increase occurred in the Kara and Chukchi Seas and the slightest increase occurred in the mountain land areas. On average, the warming of 2.0 ± 1.0 to 2.8 ± 1.1 °С is expected by the mid-XXI century, only slightly depending on the difference in the radiative forcing. On the contrary, the mean SAT increase of 3.0 ± 1.6, 4.9 ± 1.7, 6.8 ± 2.0 and 8.6 ± 2.3 °С for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, is expected by the late XXI century. The warming was simulated by all CMIP6 models, without exception, while the spatial pattern based on the ensemble-averaged results qualitatively matches that obtained for the period from the mid to late XX century. It is shown, however, that the warming over the ocean (land) is underestimated (overestimated) by the CMIP6 models.
Keywords: surface air temperature, Arctic, Arctic Ocean, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, CMIP6 models, radiative forcing, SSP scenarios
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